Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 135,321
2 South Dakota 133,112
3 Rhode Island 129,633
4 Utah 120,307
5 Tennessee 116,782
6 Arizona 115,653
7 Iowa 111,376
8 Oklahoma 110,782
9 Arkansas 109,482
10 Wisconsin 109,275
11 Nebraska 108,514
12 South Carolina 107,139
13 Alabama 105,112
14 Kansas 104,574
15 Mississippi 102,530
16 Indiana 102,460
17 New Jersey 102,318
18 Idaho 101,083
19 Nevada 98,634
20 Illinois 98,496
21 Montana 97,940
22 Georgia 97,498
23 Delaware 97,356
24 Wyoming 97,294
25 Texas 96,361
26 Kentucky 96,272
27 New York 96,208
28 Florida 95,807
29 Louisiana 95,709
30 Missouri 95,351
31 California 92,854
32 Massachusetts 92,213
33 Minnesota 92,134
34 New Mexico 91,400
35 North Carolina 87,701
36 Connecticut 87,198
37 Ohio 87,052
38 Alaska 85,292
39 Colorado 80,709
40 Pennsylvania 80,488
41 West Virginia 79,088
42 Michigan 74,692
43 Virginia 72,517
44 Maryland 68,069
45 District of Columbia 63,071
46 New Hampshire 61,907
47 Washington 48,182
48 Puerto Rico 44,176
49 Oregon 39,123
50 Maine 37,571
51 Vermont 30,889
52 Hawaii 21,032

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Michigan 754
2 Connecticut 530
3 Rhode Island 488
4 New Jersey 456
5 New York 383
6 Pennsylvania 356
7 Alaska 296
8 Massachusetts 292
9 New Hampshire 281
10 North Carolina 278
11 Minnesota 264
12 Delaware 253
13 Vermont 243
14 Tennessee 230
15 Colorado 228
16 North Dakota 222
17 Florida 213
18 Idaho 211
19 West Virginia 209
20 South Dakota 194
21 Illinois 182
22 Maryland 181
23 Nebraska 180
24 Iowa 178
25 Ohio 169
26 Maine 162
27 District of Columbia 159
28 South Carolina 157
29 Montana 153
30 Wyoming 152
31 Washington 142
32 Virginia 140
33 Texas 139
34 Georgia 134
35 Louisiana 133
36 Kentucky 126
37 Indiana 122
38 Oklahoma 117
39 Utah 112
40 Wisconsin 110
41 Kansas 108
42 Puerto Rico 102
43 New Mexico 96
44 Missouri 91
45 Arizona 88
46 Oregon 83
47 Nevada 77
48 Alabama 67
49 California 66
50 Hawaii 59
51 Mississippi 59
52 Arkansas 51

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,761
2 New York 2,559
3 Massachusetts 2,493
4 Rhode Island 2,472
5 Mississippi 2,362
6 Arizona 2,331
7 Connecticut 2,211
8 South Dakota 2,187
9 Louisiana 2,181
10 Alabama 2,152
11 North Dakota 1,965
12 Pennsylvania 1,964
13 Indiana 1,936
14 New Mexico 1,878
15 Arkansas 1,864
16 Illinois 1,860
17 Iowa 1,820
18 South Carolina 1,776
19 Georgia 1,739
20 Tennessee 1,727
21 Michigan 1,713
22 Nevada 1,704
23 Kansas 1,686
24 Texas 1,673
25 Delaware 1,601
26 Ohio 1,591
27 Florida 1,556
28 District of Columbia 1,507
29 California 1,499
30 West Virginia 1,493
31 Missouri 1,462
32 Kentucky 1,376
33 Maryland 1,370
34 Montana 1,344
35 Wisconsin 1,256
36 Oklahoma 1,251
37 Minnesota 1,228
38 Wyoming 1,209
39 Virginia 1,201
40 Nebraska 1,180
41 North Carolina 1,157
42 Idaho 1,099
43 Colorado 1,072
44 New Hampshire 910
45 Washington 697
46 Puerto Rico 663
47 Utah 661
48 Oregon 568
49 Maine 552
50 Alaska 408
51 Vermont 363
52 Hawaii 324

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Oklahoma 8
2 West Virginia 7
3 Kentucky 6
4 Delaware 5
5 New Jersey 5
6 New York 4
7 Tennessee 4
8 Arkansas 3
9 District of Columbia 3
10 Florida 3
11 Georgia 3
12 Louisiana 3
13 Massachusetts 3
14 Mississippi 3
15 Rhode Island 3
16 Texas 3
17 Arizona 2
18 California 2
19 Kansas 2
20 Michigan 2
21 North Carolina 2
22 Ohio 2
23 Pennsylvania 2
24 Virginia 2
25 Wisconsin 2
26 Wyoming 2
27 Alabama 1
28 Connecticut 1
29 Idaho 1
30 Illinois 1
31 Iowa 1
32 Maine 1
33 Maryland 1
34 Minnesota 1
35 Missouri 1
36 Nevada 1
37 New Mexico 1
38 South Carolina 1
39 Vermont 1
40 Alaska 0
41 Colorado 0
42 Hawaii 0
43 Indiana 0
44 Montana 0
45 Nebraska 0
46 New Hampshire 0
47 North Dakota 0
48 Oregon 0
49 Puerto Rico 0
50 South Dakota 0
51 Utah 0
52 Washington 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 353,077 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 318,969 2 99
Bent Colorado 265,914 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 244,399 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 244,011 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 135,950 203 93
Richland South Carolina 105,549 1026 67
York South Carolina 101,858 1196 61
Orange California 83,835 2035 35
Pierce Washington 46,984 2902 7

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Gove Kansas 8,346 2 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 3 99
Galax city Virginia 7,878 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 5 99
Orange California 1,494 1768 43
York South Carolina 1,292 2018 35
Davidson Tennessee 1,291 2019 35
Richland South Carolina 1,268 2041 35
Pierce Washington 670 2727 13

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons